Is a Smooth Transition Possible for European Security?

President Trump hosts a bilateral meeting with the President of France Emmanuel Macron – February 24, 2025.

In his first term, President Donald Trump pleaded with Europeans to take more responsibility for their own security, but many nations refused to listen, and they even laughed. Now, after Europe was proven woefully unprepared to support Ukraine through a war in their own backyard, and the second Trump administration making moves to detangle itself from the continent, Europe is faced with the stark reality that it has messed up and must now quickly reorganize for its own defense. In Foreign Policy, Ivo H. Daalder wonders if a new Trans-Atlantic bargain can be established to give Europe time to transition to self-reliance. This may be possible, but it seems as though Europe already had a chance at such an opportunity and blew it. Daalder writes:

The shocking turn in U.S. policy away from Ukraine and its long-standing allies and toward Russia has led European leaders to make a fundamental reassessment of their security requirements. Gone are the days where faith in dialogue and reliance on the United States could be assumed. Now, Europe needs to take responsibility for bolstering Ukraine and defending itself.

The March 6 emergency European Council meeting resulted in fundamental agreement on a core principle: European governments, alone and together, will devote the necessary resources to finance a rapid buildup of their defenses and support for Ukraine. These decisions are critically important, for without adequate funding there can be no real security.

But money alone is not enough. The key question Europeans still need to answer is how to ensure Ukraine’s security without U.S. backing and how to take primary responsibility for their own defense. Both will take time—in the latter case even years to complete. While U.S. President Donald Trump’s Washington may ultimately leave Europe no choice but to move forward on its own, European leaders would be well advised to make the United States an offer that will be hard to refuse.

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Such an offer would have two elements: First, a commitment to deploy a significant reassurance force into Ukraine to prevent future Russian attacks as part of any cessation of hostilities. And second, a clear timetable for transitioning primary responsibility of Europe’s defense onto European shoulders.

To support negotiations to end the war in Ukraine, Europe should agree to deploy four fully enabled armored brigades, backed by robust air power and other critical combat assets including air and missile defenses, to deter Russia and reassure Ukraine that the resumption of war would immediately involve Europe and its military.

Daalder goes on to outline his vision of the future Trans-Atlantic power balance here.