UPDATE 10.4.24: You know that Kamala Harris’s job to protect America’s border was an epic failure, and that things have only gotten way worse during her time as Border Czar. However, one lesser-known task Harris was assigned was to put pressure on the Wagner Group. After another failure by Harris, Wagner is putting entire nations at risk in Africa, with a number of governments already overthrown by Wagner-backed military coups. Now Algeria is worried about its security. Assala Khettache reports at RUSI:
Algeria’s concerns over Wagner highlight a fundamental disagreement on how to address Mali’s instability. While Algeria emphasises the need to address the socio-political grievances of marginalised Tuareg, the Wagner-backed Malian junta has focused on a military-first approach. Despite achieving some tactical victories, such as the recapture of Kidal, this strategy has failed to contain escalating violence. Wagner’s aggressive tactics, including forced displacement of Tuareg communities and targeting of Fulani civilians, have only exacerbated local grievances, feeding directly into the recruitment efforts of jihadist groups like Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal-Muslimin and Islamic State in the Greater Sahara.
Algeria fears that these escalating tensions could lead to a successful Tuareg separatist movement, which would inspire marginalised ethnic groups across Algeria, Niger and Libya to pursue autonomy. A Tuareg breakaway in Mali could potentially destabilise an already fragile Sahel region, with Algeria’s southern borders especially vulnerable. This threat of separatism would further complicate Algeria’s efforts to manage not only internal security but also cross-border challenges like migration flows, jihadist violence and trafficking networks. Beyond immediate security threats, Algeria’s economic ambitions are becoming more uncertain as Mali’s instability disrupts major infrastructure projects. Delays in the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline threaten Algeria’s goal of becoming a key energy supplier to Europe, while the deteriorating security environment puts initiatives like the Trans-Saharan Highway at risk. These setbacks could have lasting implications for Algeria’s economic ties with both Europe and Sub-Saharan Africa.
The threats to Algeria were made starkly evident in July 2024 when the Tuareg-led coalition, known as the Strategic Framework for the Defence of the People of Azawad, ambushed Wagner mercenaries and Malian forces near the border town of Tinzaouaten, just 12 miles from Algeria, resulting in a fierce battle that left dozens of Wagner and Malian soldiers dead. Reports suggest that Wagner suffered one of its heaviest losses in Africa, with up to 50 of its fighters killed in the encounter. The ambush brought Algeria’s security concerns to the forefront, exposing the fragility of its borders and deepening its diplomatic dilemma over how to counter Russian-backed forces in the Sahel without jeopardising its crucial relationship with Moscow.
Originally posted on 9.30.24.
Despite the Biden-Harris administration’s antagonism toward Russia, Harris has failed her assigned task of pressuring other nations to cease doing business with Russia-based private military company Wagner Group. Owen Matthews explains in The Spectator:
What is clear, as far as the US government is concerned, is that the Africa Corps and Wagner Group continue to commit atrocities in Africa, including mass executions, rape and child abductions — most recently in Mali. In January 2023, the US designated Wagner as a transnational criminal organization, and the Treasury Department sanctioned a swath of connected individuals and companies. But that has not stopped some countries — including the United Arab Emirates (UAE) — from continuing to do business with them. As Margolin details in his book, the UAE “coordinated on the ground with the Wagner group in places particularly like Libya where not only were they providing the Russian-made, Emirati-owned air defense systems that Wagner helped them to operate but they also… collaborated on strikes, sharing information on specific targets.”
Over the last year Vice President Kamala Harris has led efforts to try to compel the UAE — a major US ally — to halt its support for Sudanese insurgents with arms and money, as well as to stop channelling money for sanctions-defying players. But Dubai and Abu Dhabi remain major conduits for “a lot of the world’s illicit finance” — including ongoing Wagner-related financial transactions, says Margulin. However, “there are only certain parts of this network we’re going to be able to touch in a meaningful way,” he admits. The West will “have to make some really difficult political decisions about where we want to apply pressure if we want these sanctions to have a real effect… it will mean spending political capital to pressure allies in places like the UAE and so far I haven’t seen a willingness to really go the extra mile there and to push those partners to pay their way in terms of international enforcement.”
Western sanctions have so far proved unable to stop determined would-be sanctions busters — whether it’s importers of dual-use technology to Russia or mercenaries in Africa — from continuing to use the global financial system at their convenience.
Read more here.
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