Will Putin Wage a Hybrid War Against the West?

In Foreign Policy, Luke McGee discusses the possibility Vladimir Putin will wage a hybrid war against the West in the absence of other measures he can take. McGee writes:

As the war in Ukraine grinds into its fourth year, European leaders can do little more than sit and wait to learn what U.S. President Donald Trump’s supposed plan is to end the conflict, or whether Russian President Vladimir Putin will respond to Trump’s recent threat of tariffs and sanctions.

Few believe Putin will call time on Russian hostility to the West, which is why many officials have argued that 2025 will see a dramatic escalation in the Kremlin’s propaganda war.

“Putin doesn’t have the intent or capacity to use conventional threats against the West, but he can still use unconventional or ‘hybrid warfare to seek to divide the West, especially in Europe,” said John Foreman, the United Kingdom’s former defense attaché to Moscow and Kyiv.

Between a rise in populism, distrust between nations, and economic uncertainty across the continent, it’s a sunny forecast for a disruptor like Putin. “Putin might look at Europe and see cracks in unity that he can stick in a crowbar and pull open,” said Mark Galeotti, a senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, a London-based think tank.

Why, given all the problems he has on his plate, might Putin want to spread disunity in Europe? “The West is far more powerful than Russia, whatever metric you use,” Galeotti said. “If you can paralyze countries politically, you drastically diminish their ability to do things like provide support for Ukraine or coordinate policy against Russia.”

The Kremlin has a long history of using hybrid warfare tactics to disrupt European politics. Whether it’s Russian-sponsored hackers going after government databases or disinformation drives, the aim is the same: to spread doubt and discredit the governments in charge of Russia’s adversaries.

This year could be a blockbuster one for European politics. France is stumbling from crisis to crisis after President Emmanuel Macron’s snap election over the summer backfired—all to the benefit of Marine Le Pen, a far-right Putin ally. Germany will hold federal elections in February, where clashes over immigration could see the far-right Alternative for Germany party finish in second place—a big deal in a country that has coalition governments. The far-right, pro-Kremlin Freedom Party has just formed a government in Austria. And in the U.K., immigration will dominate high-profile local elections set to take place in May.

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