How will the Trump administration approach the conflict in Ukraine? Jane Lytvynenko and Isabel Coles report from Ukraine for The Wall Street Journal, writing:
For months, Russian forces have been pushing back Ukraine’s military in the east and devastating its energy grid with aerial bombardments. Kyiv has struggled to field enough troops or weapons to stop them.
Now, Ukrainian soldiers see a new potential threat: U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s looming peace push.
Whatever shape Trump’s attempt to end the war takes, Ukrainians say laying down their weapons now would store up trouble for years to come against an enemy determined to regain control of its former vassal.
“Freezing this conflict or giving concessions is to bestow the war on our children,” said a battalion commander in a bunker beneath a shattered town on Ukraine’s southern front.
Negotiations to pause the fighting would give Russia the opportunity to regenerate its armed forces and take even more territory in the future, he added.
Most Ukrainians want the war to end only if Ukraine regains control over the 20% of its territory currently occupied by Russia, something most military analysts say is unrealistic.
With Russian forces taking ground in Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin has little incentive to agree to any peace deal that falls short of his desire for control over Ukraine, said Kostyantyn Batozsky, an independent political analyst in Kyiv.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has sought to appeal to American might. He publicly congratulated Trump on his victory by recalling their meeting in September where Zelensky proposed his own plan to bring about peace by strengthening Ukraine’s hand militarily and diplomatically.
“Zelensky is trapped,” Batozsky said. “Whatever he now proposes, he’s in a weak position.”
Kyiv launched a surprise offensive in Russia’s Kursk region in August in part to gain a potential bargaining chip in negotiations. Russia has fought back, regained some territory and bolstered its forces in the region with a deployment of North Korean fighters.
Trump has said little about how he intends to end the war beyond wanting to do so quickly. Those fighting in Ukraine say ending the conflict now isn’t the conclusion they are looking for.
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