By zongyi @Adobe Stock
Anna Pavlova of MediaZone reports that the new Syrian authorities have taken control of key Russian military bases in Tartus and Latakia, raising uncertainty about Russia’s future presence. Analysts predict Russia may have to withdraw its troops due to logistical and political challenges, with the loss of these bases impacting its operations in Africa. The future of Russian military facilities in Syria depends on ongoing negotiations with the new Syrian government. Pavlova reports:
The new Syrian authorities have taken full control of Tartus and Latakia, two cities hosting key Russian military facilities: the Khmeimim airbase and the naval base at the Port of Tartus. “Thousands” of Russian troops remain in Syria, according to Kremlin-aligned channels. While the new regime has not attacked these bases, it is unlikely to tolerate their indefinite presence. The evacuation procedure for Russian forces—if it happens—remains unclear. Compounding the challenge, Russia’s operations in Africa, formerly supported by Wagner Group mercenaries, are heavily reliant on the logistics network from the Syrian bases. This includes operations to back West African regimes, Sudanese factions in its civil war, and the regime in the Central African Republic.
Russian forces have been stationed in Syria since 2015 under a long-term agreement allowing them to stay until at least 2066. That agreement, signed by now-ousted Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, unravelled rapidly as Assad lost power and sought political asylum in Russia.
Military analyst Kirill Mikhailov believes Russia will ultimately have to withdraw its troops. Reports of Russian ships leaving Tartus began circulating a week ago. […]
The Syrian bases have not only served Moscow’s operations in Syria but also functioned as a critical hub for supplying Russian mercenaries and proxies in Africa. Losing Khmeimim could undermine Kremlin-backed operations in places such as Libya, the Sahel region, and the Central African Republic.
“This significantly undermines Russia’s influence in the Middle East and also casts doubt on its standing in Africa, where Moscow continues to support General Khalifa Haftar’s regime in Libya, several juntas in the Sahel region of north-west Africa—where various Russian mercenaries assist in combating al-Qaeda and Tuareg separatists—as well as other projects like the Central African Republic, Sudan, and so on,” military analyst Kirill Mikhailov confirms. […]
“From Russia’s perspective, the answers to these questions may well be favourable, as Haftar has no reason to antagonise Moscow right now,” speculates Kirill Mikhailov. “After all, the internationally recognised government is not Haftar’s administration, but the one based in Tripoli in the west of the country. However, there’s also the matter of other regional players who wield influence over Haftar, namely France, Italy, and the United Arab Emirates.
As a result, he stresses, both the logistical and political questions remain unresolved. “This doesn’t mean the entire structure of Russia’s presence in Africa will collapse tomorrow, but it does place it under considerable uncertainty.”
Read more here.
Also, read Russia Using Wagner Group to Launder Billions in Blood Gold.
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