By Haydiddle @Adobe Stock
Joseph Trevithick of The War Zone reports that U.S. air defense systems are primarily designed to detect large, fast-moving threats like aircraft and missiles, utilizing radar and technologies tailored for higher-altitude, faster targets. Balloons, however, are slower, often float at lower altitudes, and have much smaller radar signatures, making them harder to detect and track. Their slow, erratic movement and lightweight, unpowered nature further reduce their visibility to traditional air defense systems, allowing them to sometimes evade detection or be misidentified, posing a challenge for modern defense. This challenge was highlighted in December 2024 when China dropped a hypersonic drone from a balloon, introducing a new method of deploying advanced threats that complicates defense strategies. Trevithick writes:
A video and pictures have emerged showing testing of Chinese high-flying and high-speed uncrewed air vehicles, including aerial releases from a TB-001 drone and a high-altitude balloon. The air vehicle designs are related to the MD-22, ostensibly a hypersonic testbed, which first broke cover two years ago. […]
The U.S. Air Force had been working along broadly similar lines with its secretive Mayhem program. […]
Trevithick notes that it’s unclear if the MD-series vehicles will be operational, but their potential is clear. They could perform missions like kinetic strikes or ISR, with smaller variants possibly serving as missiles. The combination of rocket and air-breathing propulsion offers flexibility, including air-launching, to extend reach and provide more options in real-world scenarios.
It remains unclear whether there are any plans to operationalize the MD-series vehicles directly, but it would not be hard to see potential interest in doing so. An MD-series platform used to demonstrate how a high-altitude hypersonic air vehicle could perform missions like kinetic strike or intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR), would be a clear stepping stone to an operational capability. Even smaller, shorter-range variations could be used in a similar role as the WZ-8 or even as missiles.
Combining rocket motors with a high-speed air-breathing main propulsion system would also offer a valuable self-contained solution that could allow for multiple launch options, as is seen in the newly emerged video. Being able to air-launch the vehicles could extend their reach and otherwise provide additional flexibility in a real-world context. […]
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The Blind Spot: How America’s Air Defense Failed to Detect Chinese Balloons
Sanya Mansoor of Time, writing on February 10, 2023, echoed these concerns, noting that U.S. air defense systems are designed to detect fast-moving objects like aircraft and missiles. Balloons, with their slower speeds, lower altitudes, and smaller radar signatures, are harder to track and often evade detection. This became evident when Chinese balloons invaded U.S. airspace, highlighting the vulnerabilities in current defense strategies. Mansoor wrote:
General Glen VanHerck, NORAD’s commander, admitted that the balloons exposed a “gap” in American air defenses. “I will tell you that we did not detect those threats,” he said. […]
Another issue is the temperature of the balloon itself. Missiles and aircraft are traveling at blistering speeds, so give off tremendous amounts of heat that can be detected at long-ranges. Not so, with slow-moving balloons in the stratosphere, Williams says. […]
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